Aluminum Reuters new year approaching, we are faced with a question mark: how Chinese non-ferrous metals demand situation in the future? The idea that, with the adjustment of economic structure, the driving force of economic growth gradually shifted from investment-driven consumer-driven, resulting in the weakening of consumption intensity of resource products, and continued to drop due to the overall economic growth, the future of non-ferrous metal China factor retired. Under its influence, the national export of resource products boom sharp decline in global non-ferrous metals market presents long bear market, it is not right. In fact, due to the non-ferrous metals demand continues to grow rapidly the next phase of consumer strength increased and the national economy, the China factor is still strong global non-ferrous metals, copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, etc. there is still much room for growth, the authorities should take precautions, more measures to protect the future demand for raw materials, and environmental protection.
Future non-ferrous metal China factor is still strong, driven mainly by two aspects:
Consumer strength tends to increase
In 2013, despite the economic slowdown impact, the China Nonferrous Metals demand remains growth. According to the National Bureau of Statistics estimated that in 2013 the country's 10 kinds of nonferrous metals apparent consumption growth of around 9% compared with last year, exceeding the overall level of economic growth. 2014 China 10 kinds of nonferrous metals demand growth is likely to reach 10 percent, the growth rate has increased. If you look at the longer term, over the next 10 years, the number of Chinese non-ferrous metals nonferrous metal consumption intensity per unit GDP consumption will increase.
China Nonferrous Metals future consumption strength tends to improve, mainly due to the unprecedented large-scale urbanization effect, thereby generating strong pull of several factors:
The first is the huge changes in the structure of housing construction. This change was mainly associated with the development of urbanization, hundreds of millions of rural-to-urban migration, thereby generating a large number of rural housing converted to urban housing. In addition, National City common Expand shantytowns and danger, the transformation of old, will make a large number of old houses transformed into houses. This amount converted old house, there will be tens of billions of square meters of the country as much. As we all know, past old houses, including the cities of old, mostly brick; the vast rural areas, and even a lot of adobe huts and rarely use non-ferrous materials, although some wires only. The future of new home construction, substantially reinforced concrete structure, and some steel buildings, extensive use of aluminum alloy and nonferrous metals is closely related to, stainless steel, galvanized sheet and other new materials and external decoration, supporting a large number of household appliances, kitchen appliances and furniture, the unit floor area increased the number of non-ferrous metals aluminum, nickel, zinc, copper, etc., compare the number of old buildings will be tenfold.
Followed by a huge change traffic roads. With urbanization, a large number of rural population into urban population is bound to have huge logistics and passenger demand, claim there is a greater development of road transport. In the past, built using the old traffic roads, there are many needs renovation, in general, the future construction of a new road transport facilities, will be high-speed rail, highways, urban roads stereo (aerial, ground, underground) -based, There are many conventional ordinary road will be transformed into fast track. While the number of various fast-track construction of non-ferrous metals needed, but also ordinary road is difficult to compare, for example, non-ferrous materials currently consumed per kilometer high-speed railway, more conventional common rail to be much higher. Huge traffic road to change this structure, means that the next traffic road infrastructure construction process, the increase in non-ferrous metals demand is huge.
The third is a huge change in the export structure. Since the beginning of this century, especially in the last 10 years, the export structure has undergone great changes in China's foreign trade, basically completed by the export-oriented textile products export of electromechanical products to the main changes in the past "shirt to change planes," the foreign trade pattern, It is being transformed into "high-speed rail for oil." According to customs statistics, in 2013 total export value of foreign trade in the country, the proportion of exports of electromechanical products has risen to 57.3%, showing a rising trend; and textile products (textiles, clothing, luggage, footwear, toys, furniture, plastic products 7 categories of products) export share dropped to 21%. With the full recovery of the world economy, the world, especially developed countries, high-speed railway, electricity, water and other infrastructure construction started, the more demand for China-related mechanical and electrical products, and because the Chinese electronic products manufacturing technology continues to improve, enhance competitive advantage China's future export of electromechanical products will further increase the proportion. That means pulling the unit export growth in GDP, metal and energy consumption intensity increased, the need for more steel and energy support.
In particular, attention is required, the current infrastructure is lagging behind in many areas, not only in Africa electricity, water, transportation and other infrastructure obvious shortage of Asian countries are in short supply, even if the European and American developed infrastructure has also aging, global high-speed railway construction more is just beginning, as the world economy recovers, the next 10 years will be the golden era of global high-speed rail and other infrastructure renovation, it is bound to produce for Chinese engineering outsourcing, machinery equipment and various steel demand. Expected in the future China's crude steel (steel conversion) direct exports and indirect exports, a year in tons will become the norm, there is likely to reach 200 million tons peak, or even more.